Cost Estimates of preventable ED visits in GA



1. Total Addressable Market (TAM) – Georgia

Population: 10.9M (2023).

Healthcare spend per capita: ~$12,500/year (CMS, U.S. avg).

Total spend: ~$136B annually in Georgia.

Hospital/acute share: ~35% of spend = $47B/year.

Emergency/trauma share: ~10% of hospital spend = $4.7B/year.


So TAM for hospital-based emergency + trauma services in Georgia is ~$4.5–5B annually.


2. Serviceable Available Market (SAM) – Metro Atlanta & Safety Net

Metro Atlanta population: ~6.2M (≈57% of Georgia).

Proportion relying on Grady as safety net: ~20–25% (uninsured, Medicaid, underinsured). That’s ~1.2–1.5M people.

Atlanta ED visits: Roughly 450 visits per 1,000 people/year → ~2.8M ED visits annually.

Grady’s ED share: ~150k–160k ED visits/year (largest single-site ED in Georgia).

Spend captured: If avg ED visit = $1,500 → ~$225M annually in direct ED services.


SAM is therefore ~$1.5–2B annually in metro Atlanta ED/trauma-related spend, of which Grady currently captures ~10–15%.


3. Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) – Preventable / Opportunity Space

Studies show 10–20% of ED visits are preventable with awareness, early screening, PCP access.

For metro Atlanta: 2.8M ED visits × 15% = ~420k avoidable visits/year.

Potential shift: If diverted to urgent care/PCP ($150–300 vs. $1,500 ED), savings = $500M+ annually across the region.

If Grady 2.0 positions itself as the orchestrator of that shift (navigation, screening, community care), it could capture $50–100M/year in value through new models (bundled payments, care coordination contracts, payer partnerships).


4. Trauma Apex Market – Georgia Statewide

As the only Level I trauma center in Georgia, Grady’s theoretical trauma addressable market is all 10.9M Georgians.

High-acuity trauma volume ~6,000 cases/year at Grady, but statewide potential is >20,000 cases.

That’s ~$1B in high-acuity trauma care market in Georgia, where Grady already has a dominant share.


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✅ Summary TAM–SAM–SOM for Grady 2.0


TAM (Georgia trauma/ED): ~$4.7B/year.

SAM (Atlanta metro safety net + ED): ~$1.5–2B/year.

SOM (Preventable opportunity + trauma leadership): ~$500M/year savings pool, of which Grady can realistically capture $50–100M by leading care redesign.






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